Below is the map based on president and approval polls in battleground states from:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-general-election-romney-vs-obama
map: http://www.pbs.org/newshour/vote2012/map/calc.html#states=lpGmplqGBlpGmqBlCp
Primary winners: http://www.pbs.org/newshour/vote2012/map/primary_winners.html
From here we can flip Nevada to Romney and Colorado to Obama
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Nate Silver has the same opinion: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/26/oct-25-the-state-of-the-states/
The motivation for this blog is Jon Stewart's description of Fox News during episode #17153, aired on 9/19/2012 ___________________________________________ (See entry on this blog: http://bullshitmountain.blogspot.com/2012/09/bullshit-mountain.html). It is devoted to exposing and discussing hypocrisy of anybody in public sphere, including public itself! If you feel like it, I would be more than welcome to post your contribution using the form below - thanks for your visit.
Friday, October 26, 2012
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
Do not watch elections in Texas or else ...
I bet if someone would such story happening in Third World country that would be a story. So how can US lecture other countries when they do not allow observers in their own country?
http://news.yahoo.com/international-vote-monitors-warn-texas-dont-mess-us-002639277.html
http://news.yahoo.com/international-vote-monitors-warn-texas-dont-mess-us-002639277.html
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Is is real bad when fact checkers spin as well
Check first comment about Bin Laden:
http://news.yahoo.com/false-claims-final-debate-064001317--election.html
But Romney indeed opposed Obama to enter Pakistan, an ally, if you would have Bin Liden in his sight:
http://crooksandliars.com/jon-perr/romney-flip-flops-bin-laden-pakistan-and-iraq
More balanced verdict:
http://www.cnn.com/2012/09/07/politics/fact-check-bin-laden/index.html
It is not pure mess up, but Obama gets credit for doing what he promised.
http://news.yahoo.com/false-claims-final-debate-064001317--election.html
But Romney indeed opposed Obama to enter Pakistan, an ally, if you would have Bin Liden in his sight:
http://crooksandliars.com/jon-perr/romney-flip-flops-bin-laden-pakistan-and-iraq
More balanced verdict:
http://www.cnn.com/2012/09/07/politics/fact-check-bin-laden/index.html
It is not pure mess up, but Obama gets credit for doing what he promised.
Monday, October 22, 2012
Third presidential debate - fact check
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/debates/presidential/2012-10-22?smid=tw-nytimes#fact-checks
Presidential Debate Fact-Checks and Updates
President Obama and Mitt Romney square off on Monday
night in Boca Raton, Fla. for the final presidential debate before the
election.
Highlights
- Live Updates
- All
- Fact-Checks
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Fact-Check: Bilateral Talks With IranMr. Obama said on Monday that a front-page report in The New York Times on Sunday was “not true,” that the United States and Iran have not agreed to meet after the American election, in one-on-one talks over the Iranian nuclear program. Read More
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Fact-Check: Trade War With ChinaMr. Romney said that the United States was currently engaged in an unacknowledged trade war with China — and that China was winning, as evidenced by its trade imbalance with the United States. Many economists agree that what is happening now are skirmishes on the sidelines, not a full-scale trade war in which both sides lose heavily.
Read More
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Fact-Check: Drawing 'Red Lines' on IranAt some points in the campaign, there has been a clear difference in where Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney would draw a “red line’’ beyond which they would not let Iran go toward a nuclear weapon. But more often than not, it has been more like a red smudge, giving both candidates maximum flexibility, while each tries to sound more determined to stop the Iranian program.Read More
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Fact-Check: Trade Cases Against ChinaPresident Obama said, “We have brought more cases against China for violating trade rules than the other — the previous administration had done in two terms.” It is true that the Obama administration has brought eight cases against China in the past four years — an average of two a year — before the World Trade Organization.
Read More
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Fact-Check: 'Obamacare' and Military SpendingWhen Mr. Romney was asked how he would find the money to pay for the increased military spending he seeks, he said: “We do it by getting — by reducing spending in a whole series of programs. By the way, No. 1 I get rid of is ‘Obamacare.’ ” But repealing the health care law would actually increase the federal deficit.
Read More
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Fact-Check: A 'Pivot' to the PacificMr. Obama spoke of his administration’s “pivot” to the Pacific, but Mr. Romney’s defense advisers say that President Obama’s plan to shift from a decade of war in Iraq and Afghanistan and move national security resources toward Asia and the Pacific – read, China — is rhetorical flourish, not real policy. “The so-called pivot is hollow,” Roger Zakheim, one of Mr. Romney’s defense advisers, told reporters earlier this month. But is it? Read More
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Fact-Check: 'Let Detroit Go Bankrupt'?Mr. Obama just stated that when Mr. Romney argued in late 2008 that Detroit auto companies should be denied a government bailout and instead turn to the private marketplace, no private financing was available. This is consistent with what auto executives have said. Read More
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Fact-Check: Troops on the Ground in SyriaMr. Romney said at the debate that “we don’t want to have military involvement” in Syria. And with that statement, he essentially put himself in a place pretty close to where President Obama and Mr. Biden have been: that America’s options are limited if putting ground troops into the country is off the table.Read More
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Fact-Check: Leaving Afghanistan in 2014?Mr. Obama said at the debate that he wanted to “transition out of Afghanistan in a responsible way.” But when is the United States leaving? In every major conversation with the Afghans and the Pakistanis, American officials talk about their plans for an “enduring presence” of American troops — mostly behind high walls — who would stay in Afghanistan for years to come.Read More
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Fact-Check: Romney's Bipartisan SuccessEarlier in the debate, Mr. Romney said that bipartisan cooperation with an overwhelmingly Democratic legislature allowed him as Massachusetts governor to balance the state’s budget for four straight years and propel the state’s schools to first in the nation on standardized tests. Many experts, however, say those claims are less than fully credible.Read More
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Fact-Check: 'Apology Tour'Mitt Romney stated that President Obama went on a foreign “apology tour.” Is this true? News organizations have repeatedly found the claim that Mr. Obama has apologized for American values and principles to be inaccurate.Read More
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Fact-Check: How Close Is Iran to a Bomb?Mr. Romney said at the debate that Iran was “four years closer to a nuclear weapon.” How close is that?
Damon Winter/The New York TimesMitt Romney responded to a question during the debate in Boca Raton, Fla.
The answer depends on three factors. The first is how long it would take Iran to manufacture bomb-grade uranium. The second is how long it would take to fashion that uranium into a weapon – without getting caught, and getting bombed, along the way. And the third is how long it would take to make the weapon small enough to fit atop a Shahab III, Iran’s longest-range missile.Read More
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Fact-Check: The Size of the NavyOn military matters, Mr. Romney repeated a challenge to the Obama administration that he has used with repeated intensity: that the United States Navy is the smallest since 1917. Yes, today’s Navy is much smaller than in past generations. But Navy commanders also point out that each individual warship at sea today is far more capable than any individual predecessor in that class of vessel. The commander in chief, Mr. Obama, made the same point in the debate, saying that today’s Navy includes aircraft carriers and nuclear-powered submarines far beyond comparison to the fleet early in the last century.Read More
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Fact-Check: Defense CutsHas President Obama promised large cuts to the military? The looming cuts to the military that Mr. Romney alluded to were not the president’s doing. They are the bipartisan product of a messy deal he reached last year with House Republicans to raise the debt ceiling and avert default.Read More
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Fact-Check: Debt as a National Security RiskIn the debate, Mr. Romney cited the United States’ growing debt as a major national security risk.
Many analysts share that assessment, including retired Navy Adm. Mike Mullen, the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. “I believe the single biggest threat to our national security is our debt, so I also believe we have every responsibility to help eliminate that threat,” he said last year. “We must, and will, do our part.”
The general thrust of the argument is that the United States’ huge deficits and debt might force cuts to its spending on human and built infrastructure, as well as research and development. The debt might also undermine confidence overseas in the United States’ ability to lead.
It’s a broad argument about national priorities. But on the more specific question of whether the amount of United States debt held by China poses a threat, the Pentagon has said, generally, no.
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Fact-Check: Massachusetts Test ScoresMr. Romney said that grade-school students in Massachusetts, where he served as governor, took the national lead in test scores, because “Republicans and Democrats came together on a bipartisan basis.” Mr. Obama countered, “but that was 10 years before you took office.” They are both right.
The National Assessment of Educational Progress commonly called the nation’s report card, does show that Massachusetts took the top spot shortly after Mr. Romney took office in 2003. But education experts have attributed that to a 1993 school reform law passed under another Republican governor, William Weld, and Mr. Romney, himself, has given that law much of the credit for his state’s progress.
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Fact-Check: A Quick Note on GeographyA small note on global geography to Mr. Romney.
During a discussion concerning the bloodshed in Syria – and Iran’s role — Mr. Romney said: “Syria is Iran’s only ally in the Arab world. It’s their route to the sea.”
Yes, Syria and Iran are allies. But Iran has a lengthy and sovereign coastline that stretches along the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, and then linking to the Arabian Sea – which, in turn, leads to the Indian Ocean and onward to the world’s high seas.
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Fact-Check: Arming Syrian RebelsOn the question of whether to arm the Syrian rebels, President Obama and Mr. Romney have a genuine difference of opinion. Mr. Obama has steadfastly refused to give the Syrian rebels heavy weapons to take out President Bashar al-Assad’s fighter jets and tanks, and even light arms have been transferred at the behest of two neighboring Arab states, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
Read More
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Fact-Check: Romney on RussiaMr. Obama attacked Mr. Romney for describing Russia as America’s “No. 1 geopolitical foe.” ”When you were asked what was the biggest geopolitical threat facing America, you said Russia, not Al Qaeda, you said Russia,” Mr. Obama told Mr. Romney during the debate. “And the 1980s are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back.” Mr. Romney did characterize Russia that way, although he also cited other more immediate security threats.Read More
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Fact-Check: A Status of Forces Agreement?President Obama suggested that Mr. Romney was mistaken in seeking to keep 10,000 American troops in Iraq. But the Obama administration initially sought to do just that — and ultimately never managed to negotiate an agreement to allow any American troops in Iraq.Read More
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Fact-Check: Conditions on Foreign AidOn foreign aid, Mitt Romney has been much more explicit than President Obama: he would make aid to Egypt, and other “Arab Spring’’ states, conditional on how they formed their governments. He has not said what the conditions would be, but aides have: the country has to be tolerant of other religions, enshrine basic human rights, educate girls, preserve peace treaties (especially Egypt’s treaty with Israel) and move toward Western forms of justice.
Mr. Obama has been less specific, but his aides note that cutting aid can become a two-way street. For example, the $1.3 billion in military aid given annually to the Egyptian military was the price of the peace treaty with Israel. Cut the aid and it might be easier to jettison the treaty.
Saturday, October 20, 2012
Thursday, October 18, 2012
Foxnews - the place for misinformation ... you are better off not watching anything at all
http://whyevolutionistrue.wordpress.com/2011/11/22/watching-fox-news-makes-you-dumber-than-watching-no-news/
Watching Fox News makes you dumber than watching no news
According to what seems to be a well-conducted and properly-analyzedPublicMind poll from Farleigh Dickinson University, how informed you are about world and national affairs is heavily influenced by where you get your news.
612 New Jersey residents were polled about where they got their news, and then were asked a few questions, like whether Egyptians successfully overthrew the Mubarak regime (yes), whether Syrians successfully overthrew the Assad regime (no), and whether the Occupy Wall Street protestors were predominantly Democrats or Republicans (Democrats).
Here’s the surprising results, though some of you will say you’re not surprised:
But the real finding is that the results depend on what media sources people turn to for their news. For example, people who watch Fox News, the most popular of the 24-hour cable news networks, are 18-points less likely to know that Egyptians overthrew their government than those who watch no news at all (after controlling for other news sources, partisanship, education and other demographic factors). Fox News watchers are also 6-points less likely to know that Syrians have not yet overthrown their government than those who watch no news.
Here’s the overall effect of your news source on how well you knew what happened in Egypt. Remember that these results are controlled for gender, education, and party affiliation by multiple regression, so these are the residual effects. They’re also controlled for other news sources, so, for example, the effect of watching Fox News is independent of whether you also relied on other media sources. No matter where else you get your news, watching Fox makes you dumber.
Watching Sunday morning news (a special hobby of the elderly), watching the evening news, or reading a national newspaper all were able to improve your knowledge of this situation by more than 10% over those who watched no news. Fox News, on the other hand, had a negative 18% effect, and, surprisingly, MSNBC had a negative 3% effect and NPR almost no effect.
NPR listeners take heart, though: you did better when answering the question about Syria:
By contrast, some media sources have a positive effect on political knowledge. For example, people who report reading a national newspaper like The New York Times or USA Today are 12-points more likely to know that Egyptians have overthrown their government than those who have not looked at any news source. And those who listen to the non-profit NPR radio network are 11-points more likely to know the outcome of the revolt against Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad. However, the best informed respondents are those that watched Sunday morning news programs: leading to a 16-point increase in the likelihood of knowing what happened in Egypt and an 8-point increase in the likelihood of knowing what happened in Syria.
Here are the Syria results. Remember that a positive figure in the “no” column represents an improvement in your knowledge of what happened there.
And, finally, the results for the Occupy Wall Street situation. Remember that a positive figure in the “Democrat” column shows the marginal increase in knowledge (over no news source) caused by that news source:
The moral? No matter where you get your news, avoid Fox News or MSNBC, and watch the Sunday morning news shows if you have the time.
It’s surprising to me that watching any non-comedy news show could make you more ignorant than watching none: presumably both Fox and MSNBC accurately convey the news from Syria and Egypt, as well as the Wall Street business. And it can’t be that just uneducated people or Republicans watch Fox News, because those factors were controlled for.
The sample size is small, and limited to New Jersey, and the disparity of results for NPR listeners vis-Ã -vis Syria and Egypt worries me. But the margin of error is 3.5%, so these results aren’t completely meaningless.
h/t: Occam
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
FOX news keeps viewers away from Binder comment
Hey Bullshit Mountain, if you do you show any story than it must be bad. The problem is you create an image of Romney of who is not - someone caring for women's equal pay. It is another piece of misinformation.
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
Post debate fact checking
http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/debates/presidential/2012-10-16?smid=tw-thecaucus#fact-check
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Fact-Check: Different From Bush?When Mr. Romney was asked how he and former President George W. Bush were different, he said they were different people and because the times were different, “my five-point plan is so different than what he would have done.”But Mr. Romney’s five-point plan, which is light on specifics, is an echo of the platform that Mr. Bush ran on in 2000 – energy independence, education, expanded free trade and a get-tough stance toward China, balanced budgets and small business. As Mr. Romney pointed out, Mr. Bush fell short in those areas, for instance by turning balanced budgets of the Clinton era into annual deficits. Still, their campaign platforms are remarkably similar.
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Fact-Check: Fast and FuriousAsked for his position on whether to restrict access to assault weapons, Governor Romney brought up Fast and Furious, the botched gun-trafficking case that led to a politically charged oversight investigation by Congress. But Mr. Romney’s description of Fast and Furious, and what is known about it, was misleading in certain significant respects. READ MORE
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Fact-Check: Romney Said Tax Rate Was 'Fair'?Mr. Obama accused Mr. Romney of saying in a ”60 Minutes” interview that he believed it was “fair” that he paid a lower tax rate than ordinary workers like bus drivers. Mr. Obama simplified the question Mr. Romney was asked by CBS’s Scott Pelley and Mr. Romney’s response.READ MORE
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Fact-Check: Libya Attack Called Act of TerrorOnce Mr. Obama said “please proceed,” it was probably not a good idea for Mr. Romney to proceed.The issue was Libya, and Mr. Romney took Mr. Obama to task for saying that he had initially called the attack on the American consulate in Benghazi an “act of terror.”“Please proceed,” Mr. Obama said, smirking.Mr. Romney, apparently not aware that he was walking into a trap, plowed ahead.“Is that what you’re saying?” he asked, pressing his point.Mr. Obama smirked again. “Please proceed, Governor.”Mr. Romney kept on, until moderator Candy Crowley intervened. “He did, in fact, sir.”And so he did. The day after the attack in Libya, Mr. Obama, in the Rose Garden, said: “No acts of terror will ever shake the resolve of this great nation, alter that character, or eclipse the light of the values that we stand for.”He didn’t say it again in the weeks after, which is why Mr. Romney made his accusation. But it is incorrect to say that Mr. Obama did not initially call the attack an “act of terror.”
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Fact-Check: U.S. Military Spending at 4% of G.D.P.In a rapid-fire exchange on dueling tax rate plans, Mr. Obama said Mr. Romney wanted to give tax breaks to the wealthy – which he said would decreases government revenue, but then add large sums to the military budget, as well. Like all statistics, these on military spending can be viewed from different angles to offer different perspectives.READ MORE
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Fact-Check: Broken Promise on Immigration Reform?“Now, when the president ran for office,” Mitt Romney said, “he said that he’d put in place, in his first year, a piece of legislation — he’d file a bill in his first year that would reform our — our immigration system, protect legal immigration, stop illegal immigration. He didn’t do it.” Mr. Romney is right about that, and some Latino voters have been disappointed.READ MORE
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Fact-Check: Calling China a Currency ManipulatorMr. Romney said that China had been artificially holding down the value of its currency for years and that President Obama had passed up the opportunity to label China as a currency manipulator. Though the Obama administration has never named China as a currency manipulator, no other administration since 1994 has.READ MORE
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Fact-Check: Romney on the Dream Act“Now, Governor Romney just said that, you know, he wants to help those young people, too,” President Obama said, referring to young undocumented immigrants. “But during the Republican primary, he said, I will veto the Dream Act that would allow these young people to have a chance.” Since the primaries, Mitt Romney has softened his position on the Dream Act, a bill that would give legal status to young undocumented immigrants who came to the United States as children. But not by much.READ MORE
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Fact-Check: Romney and Arizona Immigration LawMitt Romney’s statements about immigration measures in Arizona have been widely misquoted by Democrats — and were misquoted again Tuesday night by President Obama — to make it appear he embraced as his “model” a tough and polarizing police enforcement law in that state.READ MORE
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Fact-Check: Contraceptive CoverageMr. Obama mentioned a provision of his signature health care law that requires most insurance plans offered by employers to provide free birth control. Mr. Romney, he said, opposes the requirement and believes that “employers should be able to make the decision” as to whether their female workers get contraceptive coverage.Mr. Obama was correct: Mr. Romney is against the requirement, which he has described as an attack on religious liberty Mr. Romney has said he would abolish the requirement.READ MORE
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Fact-Check: Tariff on Chinese TiresPresident Obama said, “We had to make sure that China was not flooding our market with cheap tires” and therefore took action to save 1,000 jobs. It is true that in 2009, the Obama administration imposed a duty on Chinese tires, but last month the administration let the tariff expire.READ MORE
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Fact-Check: Doubling the Deficit?Mr. Romney just repeated the false charge — which he also made during the first debate — that Mr. Obama has doubled the deficit.“He said when he was running for office, he would cut the deficit in half,” Mr. Romney said of Mr. Obama on Tuesday night. “Instead he’s doubled it.”The Congressional Budget Office just announced that the federal budget deficit was about $1.1 trillion in 2012, approximately $200 billion less than the shortfall recorded in 2011. Measured as a share of the economy, as economists prefer, the deficit has declined more significantly — to 7.0 percent of the economy’s total output in 2012 from 10.1 percent in 2009.
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Fact-Check: Obama Unemployment Promises?Mr. Romney charged that Mr. Obama promised the unemployment rate would be 5.4 percent by now. (It is currently 7.8 percent.) This is an old canard based on a report released before Mr. Obama even took the oath of office. READ MORE
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Fact-Check: Spending, Borrowing and Higher Taxes?Mr. Romney just charged that “a recent study has shown that people in the middle class will see $4,000 a year higher taxes as a result of the spending and borrowing of this administration” — a claim that FactCheck.org recently examined and labeled “nonsense.”The figure is derived from a study by the American Enterprise Institute that attempts to calculate “the real annual cost of servicing the debt for households at various levels of income.” A blogger with the institute laterwrote that the results “could mean a $4,000 a year middle-class tax hike.”
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Fact-Check: No Tax Increases?Can Mr. Romney keep his promise not to increase taxes on working-class families? Studies show that is a promise that might be hard for him to keep.Read More
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Fact-Check: College Graduates Without Jobs?Mr. Romney said that “with half of college kids graduating this year without a college — or excuse me, without a job and without a college-level job, that’s just unacceptable.” Is it true that half the students graduating from college this year don’t have a “college-level job”?It’s not clear what numbers he is referring to, but Mr. Romney might be talking about numbers from last year. An analysis of 2011 Labor Department data by researchers at Northeastern University, Drexel University, and the Economic Policy Institute, a liberal think tank, found that about 1.5 million, or 53.6 percent, of people with bachelor’s degrees under the age of 25 last year were jobless or employed in jobs that did not require a college degree. That was the highest share in at least 11 years.
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Fact-Check: 'Let Detroit Go Bankrupt'?Did Mitt Romney really say “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt”? Yes. Though he did not write the headline that continues to haunt him — that task fell to an editor – he did argue in a New York Times op-ed article that General Motors and Chrysler should go through a managed bankruptcy. READ MORE
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Fact-Check: Pell Grants for CollegeMr. Romney said he wanted to keep the Pell Grant program growing. This a new position for him READ MOREThe governor and his campaign have repeatedly criticized President Obama’s expansion of the Pell Grant program, which they have said is unsustainable. Mr. Romney’s position paper on education says he would “refocus Pell Grants dollars on the students who need them most.” For months, this was widely interpreted as meaning that fewer people would qualify for Pell Grants — a question the Romney campaign declined to clarify.Mr. Romney would also restore banks to their role in making student loans. Mr. Obama eliminated that role and used some of the savings to pay for the Pell Grant expansion.
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