My prediction - Obama with at least 271

Below is the map based on president and approval polls in battleground states from:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-general-election-romney-vs-obama

map: http://www.pbs.org/newshour/vote2012/map/calc.html#states=lpGmplqGBlpGmqBlCp

Primary winners: http://www.pbs.org/newshour/vote2012/map/primary_winners.html

From here we can flip Nevada to Romney and Colorado to Obama

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Nate Silver has the same opinion: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/26/oct-25-the-state-of-the-states/